Cosell Talks: And the Super winner is . . . .
by Greg Cosell
The moment of truth has arrived. It is time to pick the winner of Super Bowl 46.
This was a difficult film evaluation. I have greatly wavered over the last couple of weeks as I’ve studied 2011 game tape of both the Patriots and the Giants. In addition, I’ve looked back at games from previous seasons that I believed reflected tactical philosophies that would be applicable to this game. I even went back and again studied Super Bowl 42. It is always important to remember that coaches coach against coaches, not just players.
I want to make it clear that my decision is based solely on film study. I don’t speculate on things I can’t see. How Tom Brady feels about losing to the Giants in Super Bowl 42 is not relevant. That has no strategic usefulness on Sunday. If the Patriots win in Indianapolis, it won’t be because Brady was angry, and bent on revenge. My guess is the Giants also want to win badly.
I see two factors (not the only two, of course) as critical to the outcome of Super Bowl 46. The first focuses on the Patriots offense matched against the Giants pass rush. I am probably in the minority, but I don’t believe New York’s front four will be a game changer.
Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez (AP)
Here’s why. New England’s offense, as we all know, primarily features 2 tight end personnel with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. That’s a significant difference from 2007. That season the Patriots were predominantly a 3 wide receiver offense, with the defining features the vertical explosiveness of Randy Moss and the slot brilliance of Wes Welker.
In the Patriots 2007 scheme, all 3 wide receivers were detached from the formation. Welker, the slot receiver, was not part of the pass protection. Here’s the difference with the 2 tight end package this season. Gronkowski and Hernandez provide greater versatility to align closer to the formation. They will be utilized to chip or nudge the Giants defensive ends, or any outside blitzers. Then they will release into their pass routes. In the AFC Championship, Gronkowski drilled Terrell Suggs, eliminated him as a pass rusher and then ran his route.
It’s all about numbers. You add 1, or 2 pass protectors into the equation without removing them as receivers, and you gain a tactical advantage. In addition, it allows more flexibility with your offensive line protection concepts. For those who may have forgotten Super Bowl 42, the halftime adjustment the Patriots made was to change base personnel from 3 wide receivers to 2 wide receivers and 2 tight ends. Despite the loss, New England’s offense was much more efficient and productive in the second half. It calmed down the Giants pass rush.
Victor Cruz (AP)
Here’s the second factor I believe will most influence the outcome of Super Bowl 46: the Giants 3 wide receiver personnel package, with Victor Cruz in the slot. I can’t diminish the reality of what I see on film. The Patriots do not have a very good secondary from a personnel standpoint. Bill Belichick knows that. He will construct schemes to camouflage these limitations as well as can be done. I talked about the “bullseye” concept on Cruz in a previous post, and I am certain you will see it at times, but I just don’t think Belichick can compensate for the overall weakness play after play.
The Patriots are clearly in Super Bowl 46 on merit, but their road to Indianapolis was fortuitous. They played a Broncos offense that did not have an NFL passer or passing game, and then a Ravens team that did not have much quality at wide receiver. That’s not New England’s fault. You play, and must beat, who’s in front of you. But the NFL game is about matchups, and the Giants passing game is an extremely tough assignment.
It could certainly change with 2 weeks to prepare, but the Patriots played down the stretch with Kyle Arrington and Sterling Moore on the outside in their nickel sub-package. There are times either Moore or Arrington, or perhaps a different corner, will be matched man-to-man on Hakeem Nicks. I struggle with that. There will be plays to be made.
The corollary to the coverage issue is the Patriots do not have a strong nickel pass rush to compensate. It’s likely that Eli Manning, one of the NFL’s best progression readers, will be comfortable and confident in the pocket. That does not bode well for New England.
When you evaluate tape, there are so many factors and variables that can be analyzed, too many to discuss at length. After careful consideration, I believe the Giants more explosive passing game will be the difference in a close, tense game that will be competitive through the fourth quarter. I picked the Giants to upset New England in Super Bowl 42, and I see the same result this Sunday. Only this time, it would not be an upset.
As a Giants fan, I like that you picked the Giants to win. But as a football fan, I like even greater that you research thoroughly and analyze intelligently. I am so sick and tired of “analysts”– be they talking heads or beat writers– who rely on the same old cliches and rehashed soundbytes to make their decisions. Even worse is when they rely upon irrelevant (non)factors such as revenge, and bulletin board material, and desire.
Thanks for the post.
I am a PATS fan and when i watched the giants win there NFC championship game I said “crap” not again but as i stopped and thought about the way the pats have played on defense in the last coulpe of regular season games and into the playoffs I am encouraged by what I saw.BB has done a great job with the secondary he has. For me im not worried about the PATS offense just there D, but if we can get a push like we were getting in the Ravans game my thought is Eli is going to make mistakes and the secondary will look like a bunch of probowlers. Wilfork has got to come up huge and i think he will. The mans on a mission.my prediction is PATS 23 GIANTS 20 and my man Wilfork is superbowl M.V.P.
Not sure how getting to Eli actually affects him. Did you actually see the 49ers/Giants game? Eli was hit 20 (!!!) times and sacked six times, yet he still threw for 316 yards and 2 TDs (no INTs) against a MUCH superior defense in a nasty game outdoors. You don’t think he’s going to do at least the same, indoors, against the 31st ranked Pats defense? Let’s not forget the Pats won only one game the entire season against a team with a winning record (the Ravens in the AFC Championship). They have not been battle-tested and there’s no way they’ll last against the Giants WR core.
Eric is making an excellent point here. In the 49er/Giants game, the weather conditions were nasty, the Giants were getting nowhere on the ground, and Eli had to pass all day under tremendous pressure from the excellent SF pass rush. He never cracked, never flinched, never made a mistake. And he passed for 316 yards. He read coverage carefully and very well, even under pressure, connecting with 8 (that’s eight!) different receivers. Don’t expect Eli to crack, even if Wilfork has a big day.
Also, the Giants have a 6-1 turnover advantage in the playoffs, and 9-2 over the past five games. Their giveaway-takeaway numbers for the full season weren’t that great, but they have been outstanding in that area of late. The Giants were +7 for the regular season in giveaway-takeaway, which is good, but lately they’ve been really outstanding in that area.
As Eric points out, the Pats have only beat one team all year with a winning record. Meanwhile, in the playoffs, the Giants have knocked off three teams with a combined record of 39-10 (Falcons 10-6; Packers 15-1; 49ers 14-3) and they beat them by an average edge of 14 points (42 points divided by 3 games).
His stats from the NFC title game are irrelevant. Time of possession, number of plays, and pass attempts trumped that of the 9ers. The 3 and outs proved to be too tiring as the game went on for the 9ers D. Also, playing indoors exploits the match up problems the pats TEs create against the LBs. If the pats soak up the clock with their short throw offense they have a very good chance of mitigating Eli’s production.
if you actually watched the NFC championship objectively, you’d recognize that there were 2 INT’s the 49ers didn’t make because TWO 49ers ran into each other. eli makes bad decisions under pressure, he just seems to get lucky more often than not.
this talk about the pats only winning 1 game against a team with a winning record is nonsense, didn’t the giants barely have a winning season themselves? does that matter?
cosell is the man, but he picked the pats to win in week 9. although, in his defense they were a patrick chung dropped INT away from closing that one out. hoping for eli’s shamrock to wilt on sunday
I can’t hear it anymore, that the Pats did only beat 1 team with a winning record.
First it’s not true… the Broncos, when they came to Foxboro, were 9-8, that’s above .500 if you asked me…
And then, the Pats have beaten some teams, when they had a winning record and had something to do with some teams not getting above .500 (Ask the Jest, how they think about loosing twice against the Pat’s Crew…)
Beside of this, I think it says nothing about this game, if you have beaten teams above .500. It’s all about matchup in this one, and I think, the point with NE Tight Ends is a really good one…
And Eli can be forced into mistakes, you just have to take your chances… what the 49′ers didn’t do… Eli should at least have two balls intercepted…
Pats beat the Broncos and the Ravens, both with winning records. The thing I see from the Pats defense is that they stepped up when other teams couldn’t. Everyone was wondering how the Pats would possibly be able to cover Timmy because no other team could, and they completely shut him down. He would have only gotten one touchdown if it wasn’t for the Pats offense throwing a pick setting up the Broncos on the 20.
And last week against the Ravens, everyone was predicting that the Pats needed a lot of points because they would have no chance stoping Rice, who they shut down (with an average of something like 2-3 yards per carry).
I think this week we’ll be seeing the same thing. Everyone’s saying Eli and his 3 recievers are gonna destroy the Pats secondary, but so far the Pats have come up big when they needed to and exceeded expectations greatly each playoff game
But Alex smith is not Tom Brady..Take note to much emphasis on the Giants D the games previously was only field goals deffrientials.No respect for Mayo.Spikes.Wilfork.Carter..they are getting hot and peaking at the right time..enjoy the GAME..Pats by(Special Teams)
Eric, you also know that it was yardage given up that the Pats defense was 31st in? Points given up they were 15th if i am correct. And then 20+ yrds touchdowns they are strongest in the league… only gave up a total of 5! Eli has been lucky not to have been picked at least 3 times against S.F. Tom had his bad game against the Ravens and still managed to come out with a W.
As described in the article i think the Pats offense wont have too much of a problem with the passrush and Eli will throw for at least 2 picks. We all know the Pats points of turnovers is one of the highest in the league …. so them 2 picks Eli will throw makes the difference and therefor the Patriots will win this game!
Tom Brady 4 Superbowl rings and Eli stays on one like his brother. All is good … Go Pats!!!
I disagree with the statements of Eli making mistakes in the 49rs conference championship game. That was the receiver making the wrong read therefore wrong cut, and left the ball up for grabs. Eli was pressured and still made good decisions. I don’t think Pats will replicate that pressure anyway. Go Big Blue Wrecking Crew!
The Pats played Tebow and Flacco. Not exactly the dynamic duo.
I am a Pats fan and I really like your analysis of the upcoming game. You have not left a stone unturned but you also assume that Eli will be able to stand in the pocket and find his receivers. The New England pass rush could happen especially after pushing the Ravens d line all over the place. Never the less its a well based prediction and I like your explantion. I hope its a great game and I hope its close and I hope you are wrong.
I am a Giants fan, and while I agree with most of the analysis, I think that the assumption that Gronk will be healed by gametime is wrong. he’s not practicing all week, and I have heard several former players cast a lot of doubt on his ability to be ready by Sunday. Take away Gronk and you take away that 2 TE pass rush protection. That leaves Hernandez, a great pass receiver but not mush of a blocker. And don’t forget that the Giants D is much better than they were a few weeks ago. Osi is healthy, and the linebackers are making a real difference, especially in short yardage pass situations. I do think that it will be a close game, but the Giants know how to keep Brady off his game, so he shouldn’t have a big day.
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GoodJob Cosell…but there is one thing you left out of this equation…the Pats will get to Eli alot and this time they will get him off his mark and they will pull him to the ground. Eli will get to back foot throws which will make that pass game “off”. Pats win by 2 scores!
Both points you raise will be the defining reasons one of the teams win.
As a Giants fan I hope you’re right but if the Pats secondary come up with big plays maybe not.
Guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Good analyzing makes you an analyst. Not so good is just a blogger in my opinion.
http://www.mr-lindsay.blogspot.com
Not of fan of either team. But I do think this will be one of the best Super Bowls ever. This will come down to which ever D can put the most pressure on the QB. Pats D has been questionable but the past couple games they have stepped it up. Giants D has got some great pass rushers. But can they do it with the 2 tight ends there. Oh I can’t wait to see the game. going to be a thriller.
But I do think the Pats will pull it off even thou I’m kinda going for the Giants. Comes down to the 4th with a field goal.
I hope you’re wrong. It would be an upsetting to me if the Giants win…again. You’re probably right, though. I guess the Pats don’t have a chance.
Die-hard Giant fan myself. I can respect what everyone has to say and its always great to hear the experts say your team is favored to win. But, to me what matters when you get to the last few legs of this race is if you’ve got “IT!”. The “IT” is that magic that follows a team around and makes them play on a level that other teams just can’t reach. The “IT” is that “blessed assurance” that every player has within themselves when they hit the field that no matter how things go down we’re gonna own that “W” when the 60 minutes of football run down. The “IT”, man, is untouchable and it can only be owned by one team. The only reason the Giants are here living this moment is because of one thing: THEY GOT “IT” AND THEY KNOW THEY GOT “IT”!!…The only thing everyone else can do is deal with it….that’s truth.
I am a Pats fan. And I think that Tom Brady will pick apart the Giants defense if they give him to much time. If they rush him, the Giants leave the midzone open and he will bullet it to Gronkowski and Hernandez. Which will lead the Giants to taking their Linebackers into man coverage and zone giving Brady alot of time. The Giants offense is good enough to beat the Patriots secondary, we all know that. But B.B. has been working with them for two weeks. And the Patriots will definitely bring their linebackers out into zone. They work with a 3-4 defense, so they can spare two linebackers while rushing in two more. Which gives five brutes smashing into the Giants line. That won’t give Manning time at all. So I truly feel that the Patriots will win it 31-21.
So the Pats only need 6 dropping back against Eli and will be fine? But the Giants couldn’t keep Brady underpressure with 5 (4linemen and a LB or S) rushing him and 6 dropping back? Interesing opinion.
I would have thought our 5 rushing Brady would be much more effective that the Pats. Not to mention our Secondary is slightly better.
Should be a ripper game though, can’t wait to see how it pans out!
youre forgetting that the patriots o-line is much better than the giants o-line. and by much better i mean that manning got hit too many times in that championship. i believe wilfork and his merry men can upset the giants back field. agreed that the giants will most likely be able to burn the pats secondary, but the giants are a timing offence and the patriots wont allow manning all the time he needs. even at that the patriots secondary has stepped up and made big plays and couple that with manning throwing balls up for grabs more often than he’s accurate and were looking at a game that just might prove the patriots defensive worth. lastly we are not a 31st ranked def. we are a 15th ranked defense, because yards only matter in fantasy football.
Reply to Brandon:
You mistakenly call the Giants offense a “timing offense”. They are not. They are a ‘read and react’ offense. That is why people think that Eli just throws it up there. After the routes are run and the pocket breaks down, Eli is still reading his options and looking for the play. He is never really looking to scramble, except to extend the play to complete a pass. The Niners showed how to play the Giants Offense. That was to shut down the deep threats and force Eli to find a higher risk target underneath in the slot or outlet to the back. The Pats actually have a timing offense. The quick release plays are all timing based and unstoppable if you don’t change the timing on them. When the receivers are not where they should be, Brady has to go to ‘read and react’ which is not his best skill. Pittsburg took advantage of this during the season and so did the Ravens during the playoffs. The Patriots run game looked incredible against the Ravens because the Ravens basically said “go ahead and run, we are going to jam your receivers and fill the passing lanes and play man under all day”. I agree Wilfork is a man on fire, but the Giants O line handled the Niners top ranked rush very effectively until the second half. It was the Niners back field play that really made Eli have to force it in to Cruz in the first half. Only Cruz’s elusiveness bought him those yards as the defender was often glued to him and only at the last second was there any separation.
@J.R- Are you kidding? Does Superbowl sounds like backyard football to you? “if you rush him the giants leave midzone open?” Oh you need to learn something about football before you start analying the parts of the game. Even if you rush 5, you have 6 players in the backfield to defend.
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Regardless of the team I root for, you give a nice analysis from your perspective. Easy to see that the Pat fans here dispel what you write because they HAVE to believe their team will win and need to get a word in edge-wise. However, on paper, the G-Men definitely have the advantage. Blue will win. And I disagree with you, Brady will get battered…JPP is on a mission.
If everyone is talking about revenge then definitely JPP is on a mission. Tom Brady forgot to mention JPP in the “giants defensive line” in a press conference. That might just mean something haha
You’re right blue will win. The pats are wearing the Blue jerseys tomorrow..
And to add to my post, like BB, Coughlin too has had two weeks to prepare as well. So don’t be fooled Pat fans, the G-Men will have some surprises up their sleeves too.
Thanks for posting such a nice and valuable informations.
The facts are facts: Manning is Manning. He is a tough QB. The PATS “D” can look like champions one one drive and porous on other drive. They are opportunistic too. The front seven is good. The main issue is they are difficult team to predict on D. The difference of 2011 PATS is they are not soft like last few years. Even though secondary is not as talented but they fight hard. The pass rush for D improved.
The PATS O really clicks on hurry up. The Giants choked every time the opposition played hurry up. This will be the killer for Giants.
PATS win 34-20.
I don’t agree with any part of this analysis.
Predicting the outcome of a game to be played in two days is so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so stupid.
I “hope” the Patriots win and win big. I think they will. But I’m not stupid enough to put it in writing like a certain boneheaded columnist.
agree~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I am a Pats fan and I think this is a good analysis and prediction of how things COULD go down on Sunday. BUT, the Pats still managed 23 points in one of the ugliest offensive showings they’ve had all season against a superior defense in the Ravens. If Tom is on his game then the Pats will put up a lot of points. Even if the Giants manage to rack up yards down the field, the Pats defense are much better than the numbers reflect. They can clamp down in the red zone and limit the Giants to field goals.
It is refreshing to see decent comments on this blog . Congrats to all the posters for keeping it clean and civilized. Go Pats
I agree Ironfist. It’s nice to actually read decent comments for a change. No trash talking is nice. True sports fans that can take criticism.
I dont understand why all these patriots fans are predicting some two score win by their team. It makes no sense that they dont respect the giants even though the giants beat them the last 2 times they faced each other. I respect the patriots and will admit they are a good team. It will definitely be a good game. But one thing i cant stand is the arrogance and ignorance that surrounds the patriot fan base. GIANTS BEAT YOU the last 2 times. At least give them the respect that i give your patriots and say the game will be close.
Sorry Aaron, but your dead wrong about Pats fans being arrogant and ignorant.. For over a week now all I ever read of hear from Giants fans is the pats are cheaters, brady’s gay, this player is going to do this or that. Also giant players are and always will be cheating, lying, arrogant dirty players.. Saying they are going to take players out by taking out legs and other parts.. But thats ok for all you guys to say it but if a pats fan or anyone says something about your team then all kinds of hell breaks loose… Pats will win this one, but it will be close, just because your NJ team says NY on there helmets and most writers want to diss on the pats doesn’t make them wright. Pats D- line secondary included have got healthier and better pats were supposed to lose to the Broncos and Ravens because they couldnt stop the run no pass rush etc etc etc. People need to grow up and stop making silly predictions and let the game play out on sunday then come back and post your nonsense again..
all we have heard in NE this week is Giants O line is great, Giants defense great, poor Patriots no name defense……poor Tom Brady…….blah blah…now the NFL.COM has a story that someone at GIANTS.COM posted the Giants are the Superbowl Champions today………so……………….
It’s called “whistling past the grave yard”. Trust me, the pats would rather have played any other team in the NFL rather then face the Giants again. Doesn’t mean the Pats will lose, far from it since they have a great team. It’s just that N.E. fans have a tendency to talk loud and be fairly obnoxious when they are afraid.
Aaron, saying your team is going to win by “Two scores” not mean that you disrespect the other team. Those fans have said good things about the Giants but they feel their team will win by Two scores (is it likely?) Well the Pats have won three SB’s all by three points! They have lost three SB’s by more than three points every time! Although each one has got closer. Yes the Giants have won the last Two times and probably should have won the regular season game when the rested some players before the playoffs in the PATS nearly perfect season. The facts are the PATS and the GIANTS could each win by TWO scores, or by one point only! I am an English Patriots fan and remember getting walloped in SB XX to the Bears, so have hungered for the PATS to a win a SB and to win a SB by a Huge score 70- 0 would be about right. That is not me being big headed about my team, I just want them to win and win easily so I can enjoy the clock ticking down unlike the last 4 SB’s the PATS have been in! But most of all I just want my team to win. If that is a safety on Eli manning in Overtime for a 2-0 win so be it
) Just one thing it is not often if ever that B.B. has lost twice to the same team in a season since taking over at Foxboro.
ADieDee:
Saying the Giants “should have won the regular season game” in 2007 is like saying the Patriots should have won the regular season game in 2011.
Did you watch the game? Do you realize that the Patriots scored the go-ahead TD with 1.5 min left in the game? And that a pass interference call on the Pats put the ball on the 1 yard line with about 30 seconds left in the game?
People keep talking about the Giants without actually knowing what they’re talking about.
“The Giants match up well against the Patriots”. Garbage! The outcomes of the past three games these teams have played have been 100% the result of a unlikely mistake in the final minute.
Nicely done Greg Cosell..!
I am a hugh Patriot fan and i think you have covered all but one major topic. From my perspective, turnovers have to play a major role in deciding the outcome of this again. Because the game will be played in the dome and because both teams are so good on offence there will be a lot of offence which will lead to turnovers and the team that comes up with extra possessions has to win, right? If Brady gets picked 3 or more times then the Pats dont win and if Eli cant score a TD every other time he is in the red zone then the Ginats can’t win.Ofcourse, i pick the Pats in a come from behind thriller, 30-27..!!! That covers the spread and then some..
Umm, the spread is +3 Patriots.
How does 30-27 “cover the spread and then some”?
Gentlemen and ladies let’s all be real here. I’m a never dying fan of the Giants here and I will say The Patriots are a VERY good team and they are the AFC Champions for a reason given that, on the other hand the Giants have been and are continued to be battle tested every time now 2007 season is long gone in the past. Fact is both offenses are pretty much equal down the line balance wise ( the Pats 2+ TEs vs NYGs 3 WR core aka the three-headed monster). When they played in the regular season the Giants DIDN’T have Osi AND Bradshaw, they weren’t 100% healthy and the Pats were. Now they’re healthy and with that front four I promise you all Brady is going to get sacked, hit and will make too many costly mistakes in the big
Eli Manning is not winning the super bowl 46 this year and Deion Branch is to get M.V.P and a Brand New Ford F 150
Sorry Kyle I gotta disagree the G-Men by 4pts.
I’m a Pats fan and while I won’t bet on either outcome I can see why the Giants would be favored and even boastful. They have a couple weapons this time that they didn’t and their D is playing better. A couple things that have been overlooked between this game and the one they played in the regular season that Giants fans don’t want to hear would be Brady was playing with an elbow injury (that probably contributed to his sloppy throws and turnovers), Hernandez was just coming back from a knee injury and wasn’t 100%, and both Spikes and Chung went out in the second half after they had shut the G men out. I agree that was without their lead back but if there’s something that this D is good at it is shutting the run down. I also have a lot more faith in the O line of the Pats as compared to SB 42. Even in the regular season game Brady only got sacked twice, not a stellar job for such a “dominating” front four as the Giants front line has been called. Turnover’s and line play is going to be the deciding factor.
New England fans always have excuses when they lose and that goes for any sports fans be they Red Sox, Bruins, Celts or Pats. The other team can never be better and it’s only some other reason or bad break which brought the loss.
The problem with the blogs author is assuming Gronkowski will play at 100%. Anyone following this story and hearing what players who have actually had this injury have to say know differently.
I don’t know who will win but taking Gronkowski out of the offense even if it is only by 40% or so assuming he plays at all will diminish it greatly because they depended so heavily on him.
Still, as they say, on any given Sunday one team can beat any other team. We shall see.
JJV, please give one example of a New England sport fan, in any sport, that has come up with an excuse for a loss in the past 10 years. I believe you are confusing New England with New York..
Excuse me, but New England fans DO NOT make excuses for loosing.
But we really brag when we win
And we love our Patriots no matter what
And Tom Brady IS the best…read and understand his stats
And they’re goning to win this for MHK and Mr Kraft……….then themselves and Coach
I’m not sure why everyone is on the Giants bandwagon. The Giants were 9-7 this year, and were 3-2 the last five games. This leads me to believe they are incredibly inconsistant. They won the last two games and had two great games against NO and SF, but with two weeks off, the heat could have cooled down and the bad Giants can show up. They don’t have dominant runners like they did a few years ago. The passrush is hot and cold along with the Patriots two tight end set, and Bilichek has two weeks to put together protection for Brady as well as mix up his coverages for the Giants wide outs, also let’s not forget the Patriots are great when the opponent is in the red zone. I think Pats win by 10 points. And no, I’m not a Pat fan.
I hear you points. Could be because you are either a NO fan or a SF. The Giants are playing on a higher level than most people are realizing…and the 9-7 season wish due to key players being injured. Not to mention that their D secondary were a bit suspect and lack of a running game. However, those factors expect for the running game which is now showing up, are in the pass and they are now exhibiting pro-caliber play. Systematic Eli has picked D’s apart…the secondary inconsistency is now history..and their front four a all healthy…so its safe to say that the Pat will get blown out if they can fully utilize their TE and score. My prediction is if Brady is sacked more then 5 times…it will be game over baby. Giants 38-10. And of course I’m a BIG BLUE fan.
I think you miswrote (?) when you postulated that the NJ Giants “D secondary were a bit suspect”. You probably mean “are suspect”.
And that NJ Giants running game? Still suspect – especially with an injured Bradshaw (who didn’t practice, while Gronkowski did practice yesterday).
And what’s that for a prediction?!?
“If Brady is sacked” six times then the NJ Giants will win by four TDs?
Huh? What if he’s only sacked five times? Do the Pats win or do they lose by only three TDs?
For what it’s worth, an interception is much worse than a sack against Brady. Interceptions totally blow his confidence. I’ve seen it many times over the past few years. Plus, I don’t really think that he’ll be sacked more than once – but I can’t say the same about Eli, who’ll have a nice shade of artificial turf green adorning his jersey.
Sorry Robert if you remember when the Giants were hot four years ago they stayed hot. Two weeks can make a difference I agree with you there BUT the confidence level UT the Pats cannot and will not bring it like the NINERS did two weeks ago Giants by 4 or more.
Come on man. You are a Giants fan. Your picks are meaningless in this game because you see what you want to in the film. It’s not objective at all.
Very true.
I would add that all picks are meaningless. It’s called predicting the future and no one knows what’s going to happen – unless some underworld mob boss has fixed the game…
Giants weren’t healthy in the RS including the front four so that is irrelevant.
Anyways, nobody can’t count out a 3 time SB winner in Brady but the weapons the G Men have is almost limitless. The pats’ only real weapon is Brady.
Going to be an exciting nerve racking game!
Volourn I agree they WEREN’T healthy and now that they are as long as Eli and the Gs don’t make mistakes here’s what will happen… the front 4 D-line men, 4 years ago w/ a SB win, the 4th and final game of the year will end up with NYG franchise with 4 RINGS!!!
I’m a Giants fan, and I too think the Giants will win this game if both teams bring their A game (and I assume they will because they’re both excellently coached), but I think you’re wrong on two accounts
1) Rob Gronkowski will be more limited as a blocker than a pass catcher. He needs his base under him to block and the ankle affect that more than running a seam route.
2) What makes the Giants’ pass rush unique is their ability to deliver interior pressure just as well as an edge rush. Simply chipping the ends won’t neutralize that.
Tom Brady, without a deep threat is stuck between going to the run, which takes the game out of his hands and potentially leaves him playing catch-up if they have to abandon it, and forcing short/intermediate balls into seven men in coverage, which got him turned over 3 times in week 9. I think he’s masterful enough to execute any game plan, but this one’s going to be tough.
It’s fine that you want the NJ Giants to win the game – you’re a fan. But your assessment about Brady and the deep threat is off base. Perhaps you’re thinking about the 2008 Superbowl with Randy Moss.
The Pats don’t play spread the field anymore. They have 2 TEs, plus Welker running the slot and Branch going middle. No one really ever goes deep anymore. And that’s a good thing because Brady isn’t a good deep ball thrower. But we’ll see if 85 gets into the game for any extended period.
As far as the running game, the Pats have been running the ball very successfully since the 2nd half of the season. It’s almost becoming a 50-50 split (if you can believe it). And don’t be surprised if Hernandez takes a hand-off or two.
Grossly over-rated. This is the same team that lost to the Rex Grossman led Redskins twice oh the shame the shame and lost to the Vickless Eagles. NE 42-20.
I wish I could recommend your comment…
Grossly over-rate Patriots you are talking about. Why? You lost to Bills, cowboys and OFCOURSE THE GIANTS. The Giants had the toughest schedule than anyone else in the league. So when they made it this far, they truely have talent. Yeah they lost twice to REDSKINS but what did it do? Did it stop them from making it to the Superbowl? Oh i don’t think so. And about your prediction, you are patheticwith numbers 24-20 score is believable but not 42-20. Your just horrible fan who thinks its a Madden Superbowl where you just go for a shootout. Years have passed and there haven’t been any blowouts in the superbowl, and for sure this wont be a blowout.
Nice analysis. As someone said, don’t keep saying Pats are 31st D, on points they’re about 15th. And sure, Pats only beat a couple of teams with a winning schedule. Neither did they lose twice to a shambles like the Redskins, or who was it, Seattle (?) like the Giants. The Giants famed D let the 49ers get 2 TDs to the only viable receiving threat they had on the field – Brady has far more targets. Let’s hope it’s not decided by mistakes, as in the Champ games, or barmy calls like a couple of the playoffs.
Its funny that a team with only 1 win against teams with winning records during regular season would bring up the redskin games. Especially when that team freaking lost to the same Giants your bad mouthing. Is that an excuse for losing to the skins? No. we played poorly during both games. But your team lost to us, so what does that say about the Pats?
Ed Reed of the Ravens couldnt even walk off the field after the game against the texans. He had to be helped off by two palyers. He had one week to get healthy and was very effective in the game vs the patriots. Gronk came back into the ravens game and was even walking pretty strongly into the lockeroom when he left after the injury. He will have two weeks to heal, and will be shot up with pain meds. He might no be 100 percent but he should be a factor. The Patriots could just be playing it safe and not having him practice, Tom Brady has been on the injured list his whole carrer.
Finnaly a legit fan who wants to talk about superbowl, without the pathetic predictions crap.
If the 49ers return man does not muff punt twice which results in 10 Giant points, it could very easily be Pats vs 49ers. With that being said if Lee Evans catches the touchdown the ravens could easily be in it as well. But the packers lost it for themselves with the dropped passes and the lucky halftime hail marry pass. My point is both teams have gotten lucky breaks. To say one team has dominated every team they faced or is dominant would be overstated.
I agree with what you say but I would also add:
If O’Brian didn’t call that completely idiotic and game changing 50-yard hail mary pass into triple coverage after the Spikes interception during the middle of the fourth, the Ravens would never have been in the position to pass the ball to Evans or have Cundiff shank the FG attempt.
Got to look at the whole picture…
I am tired of everyone saying “If it wasn’t for Williams muffing two punts” He only muffed one and the ball was stripped the second time.Why is it so hard for people to say that the Giants made a good play on the ball? I don’t want to to talk bad about Pats fans because Giants fans can be hard to deal with too, but this whole lucky stuff needs to stop. The Niners and the Giants played their hearts out and the team who made the big play at the end won. Don’t cheapen it with finger pointing and blame games.
All the talk can be sumed up in 4 leters …..G-MEN!
Summed!!
Four letter word for the SB champs G-men !!!!!
one thing we all forget is that this is still a football game.. what no one has taken into account is tackling. who will hit who the hardest, who is more vulnerable, who will deliver the big hits that will intimidate the other guys. who will hit a guy so hard or cut block a guy so well that well that he will get injured. the giants pass rush is golden as every claims. giants fans claim that the reason why they lost some games is because of injuries right? what if JT or JPP gets injured huh? what if the giants dline gets called for lot for roughing the passer. what if the patriots get a lot of holding penalties? what, just what if Tom Brady intentionally holds the ball and lets it go at the last second, then he gets hit and BAM roughing the passer. what if Benjarvus Green ellis has an MVP like performance? we all know that the giants have certain tendencies, but the thing is we dont know what BB has planned on defense. The packers beat them giants in the regular season, so did the 49ers. but who elimanted them from the playoffs? werent green bay the favorite to win the superbowl? werent New York giants supposed to lose to the packers. Eagles still had a chance to make the playoff with a losing record. so folks whatever this shit head analyst has watched on film means nothing. because we all know that teams watch how their game films and improve on the mistakes they made. tendencies are breakable, but surprises are unpredictable.
This coming from a Giants fan. Bro I couldn’t have said it better. The truth is no one can tell you why which team won until the game ends. Thats when all the I told you so’s will be heard every where. These are two good teams. Pat’s have been good all year suspect D or not, they won games. Giants up and down all season, Suspect running game or not they are winning when it mattered most. No matter what road either team took, they both ended up in the same place. Just like with the 49ers this game can come down to 1 great play on the ball. Just like with the Ravens game it could come down to making or missing a field goal. Or either team could run away with a lead in the third. we have seen it all from both clubs. There is nothing to be predicted here.
I must admit..The Giants D is nasty ..G-men will win the Super Bowl.
That the Patriots did not beat a team with a winning record by the end of the season is accurate, but incomplete. Many of those teams (chargers, raiders, jets, broncos) ended the season 8-8. They have a losing record BECAUSE the Patriots defeated them. It uses the Patriots victories as an argument against their success this season and boils down to: “Patriots had an easy schedule because they won”, which is silly. And anther thing, this time regarding Manning’s 4th quarter TDs. That stat puzzles me. One reason he hold that record is because most elite QBs don’t need to score 4th quarter TDs to win, as the Giants did this year. It’s cool that he keeps them in the game and all, but I see that more as an sign of 3 quarters of under performing vs. a marker of one’s elite status. Pats > Giants: 28-17
I agree with that 4th quarter analysis. But more than Eli I blame Kevin Gilbride poor play calling early in the game. I give credit to Eli because the coaches have to turn him loose and he delivered more often than not. So he deserves his props for the performance, but the coaching staff shoulders most of the blame for calling mediocre 3 quarters of football
if you watched the giants through the early part of the season the only reason the giants were in most games was because of manning’s play in the 1st 3 quarters . He was great in the first 3 quarters all season then legendary in the 4th quater. When the team got healthy at the end on the season it wasnt just manning winning games it was the running game, defense and special teams which allowed the giants to win without Eli being heroic in the 4th quarter. Dont give an opinion that undervalues a players heroics unless you watched him play every snap all season. Anybody who watched everysnap of the giants season, every fan coach or analyst will tell you how great he has been for many many reasons.Eli is elite, a winner, a leader and any other superlative people give great quarterbacks.
I do agree the Pats dont have to apologize about who they beat. They went 13-3 against NFL teams which is impressive no matter who you play. Though one of those losses was at home to a beatup giant team.
Go to….NFL.COM
The GIANTS WEBSITE posted TODAY (SAT)…that they won the SUPER BOWL,,,it got taken down, but not before it has flooded the web…..
i love how people keep bashing the pats for winning one (really two) games against plus-.500 teams… these are all pro teams… any team can beat any team, any day… which is why the giants lost to three horrible teams. and something i saw alot of people saying is that the revenge factor doesnt have anything to do with this game and no impact… well ask anyone who plays any sports, revenge can make you sooo much better or even worse… but in the brady/belicheck era the have only lost to a repeat team maybe twice? and brady has never had back-to-back bad games? (that i remember) The patriots play thier best when they have time to prep and the other team is hyping themselves… also keep in mind that thier defense has been playing much MUCH better than they have been, especially since that RS game with giants…that is why im thinking the patiots will win.. .by 11 points, 42-31. and as an extra credit guess, im predicting somethingthe patriots havent shown in a while… watch for lot of screens to slow the d-line of giants down
also im a fan of the pats, but whys does that even matter? i DO have respect for giants and everyother team in NFL… even the high school team of the broncos
The Giants had the worst running game in the NFL this year (32nd). Their offensive line gave up 15 more pressures on the qb than any other team @220 presures (also 32nd in the league.) The Patriots only gave up 142 pressures …one of the best in the league.Their oppontents scored more points this year than the Giants “Explosive” offense did (less than 400 points). The Patriots scored over 500 points and are the true explosive team (Gronk 17 TD’s…Welker 122 catches etc…). Pats defence only gave up 21 points per game vs Giants 25 per game. Pats had injuries to overcome also…NE has a better offense and better defense. Pats 35-28!
Now we all know for sure.
Sincerely,
Giants fan.