Playbook Week 11 Fantasy Tips Part 1

Fantasy Tips, Inside the Game, Playbook War Room

As the season draws closer to the playoffs, wins are as important as ever for you fantasy owners.  So we took a look at players who starred last week and some others who didn’t, to try and give you guidance on whose success (and struggles) you can expect to continue.

CIN@BAL

Hot: Ed Dickson, TE Baltimore

Will it keep up: Not this week

  • Dickson did most of his damage over the middle of the field against a Seahawks back 7 that does not cover well
  • Bengals run a lot of cover 2, but take away the middle of the field well by dropping their LBs deep
  • Dickson will have more success underneath and on the edges of the defense, which will keep his catches up, but his yardage will down

Chris Ogbonnaya (AP)

JAC@CLE

Hot: Chris Ogbonnaya, RB Cleveland

Will it keep up: No

  • Opposing Defenses have become so condensed against this offense due to its inability to make any plays down the field
  • Ogbonnaya does his best work when he has space to move, on draws and screens. The Browns do not provide him with as many of these opportunities as they should
  • The Browns OL does not do a good job of generating creases for Ogbonnaya to run through, which limits his ability for big plays in the run game

Reggie Bush (AP)

BUF@MIA

Hot: Reggie Bush, RB Miami

Will it keep up: Yes

  • As long as Bush keeps generating a healthy amount of touches he will produce;  we anticipate he will keep getting the ball this week
  • Buffalo struggled tackling Demarco Murray last week, getting gashed for nine runs over seven yards
  • Bush possesses big play speed which will allow him to exploit Buffalo’s poor tackling and edge defense

Wes Welker (AP)

KC@NE

Cold: Wes Welker, WR New England

Will it keep up: No

  • The Chiefs cannot get after the passer; they are last in the league with only 9 sacks, which should allow Tom Brady to have all day to pick apart the KC secondary
  • Chiefs struggled in the first two weeks of this season against passing attacks that spread the defense out
  • Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez will start to draw more attention from teams, which should move linebackers out from the middle of the field, allowing Welker more room to work

Steve Smith (AP)

CAR@DET

Cold: Steve Smith, WR Carolina

Will it keep up: No

  • Last week the production was not there, but Steve Smith was still getting open
  • Tennessee jumped out to an early lead which allowed their defense to sit back and force Carolina to throw. Out of 45 passing attempts, Tennessee rushed 3 players 16 times (36%), which allowed them to cover with 8 defenders more than a third of the time.
  • Tennessee seemed to surprise Carolina with their ability to pressure, so expect Carolina to utilize a lot of max protections to limit the Detroit pass rush

Jermichael Finley (AP)

TB@GB

Cold: Jermichael Finley, TE Green Bay

Will it keep up: Not this week

  • The Buccaneers primarily play zone coverages and drop their LBs very wide. This leaves a lot of openings up the seam and over the middle of the field
  • Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings’ ability to stretch the field will force the defense backwards and open up space in the flats
  • A player like Jimmy Graham was able to have success lining up as a WR against Tampa Bay, so expect Finley to be put in a lot of similar positions

Denarius Moore (AP)

OAK@MIN

Hot: Denarius Moore, WR Oakland

Will it keep up: Yes

  • Moore does a good job of keeping DBs hands off of him not only at the line of scrimmage, but down the field. This allows him to stay at top speed down the field
  • Minnesota runs a lot of Cover 2 and Cover 4, which play to Moore’s strengths. His speed makes teams honor him down the field and he is improving as a route runner which gives him room to work in the intermediate passing game
  • It seems as though Carson Palmer is trusting him more and more which means a good number of targets each week

For more All-22 analysis, watch NFL Playbook: Thursdays and Fridays at 8pm ET only on NFL Network.

Send your questions and comments to the Playbook War Room Team at playbook@nfl.com and at Twitter @NFLN_Playbook

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